On October 8, 2026, global markets turned their attention back to oil. Escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude futures up $2.28 (+2.28%) to $102.28 a barrel in Thursday's Asian session, while U.S. WTI crude gained $1.66 (+1.88%) to $89.94. KAPU breaks down how the oil shock feeds through to the Canadian dollar — and what it means for RMB-to-CAD exchange.
Meanwhile, the loonie remains pinned near an 18-month low. On October 7 the Canadian dollar fell 0.5%, with USD/CAD at 1.427 — one loonie worth about 70.08 U.S. cents — after touching 1.4293 on Monday (October 5), its weakest in 18 months. Oil surging while the loonie stalls: what does that mean for anyone exchanging currency?
The number that matters for FX is the cross rate: with USD/CNY around 6.70 and USD/CAD at 1.427, the implied RMB/CAD rate is about 4.70 — notably stronger than roughly 4.87 a month ago. In other words, CNY 100,000 bought about CAD 20,540 a month ago and buys about CAD 21,300 today — roughly CAD 760 more. Always check the live rate board before exchanging.
1. Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz: why oil is back above $102
The main driver of this week's oil rally is deteriorating maritime security in the Middle East. Reuters reported on October 8 that the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Wednesday a tanker north of Qatar was struck by multiple projectiles, causing casualties. Before the war, the Strait of Hormuz carried shipments equal to about 20% of global oil and fuel — it is the chokepoint of world energy.
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has entered its eighth month, and attacks on tankers in October hit their highest frequency since the war began, with analysts warning they could intensify further.
Two more supply-side variables: the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to accelerate the release of oil stocks and prioritize diesel supplies under a plan launched in March, while the U.S. cut some offshore output as a hurricane menaced production. On the bearish side, the G7 agreed last Friday to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude from emergency reserves, Middle Eastern crude exports have climbed back above pre-war levels, and OPEC+ decided on October 4 to hold November production targets unchanged at a combined 31.01 million barrels a day. With bulls and bears wrestling, Brent is holding above $100.
2. Oil up, loonie down: three forces holding the CAD back
Normally, as a major crude exporter, Canada's currency benefits from higher oil prices. Yet the loonie fell 0.5% against the U.S. dollar on October 7. Three reasons:
First, global risk-off sentiment. A selloff in French government bonds revived worries about eurozone debt strains, sending investors into the safety of the U.S. dollar, which strengthened broadly and dragged the loonie down with it.
Second, Canadian rate expectations. Canada's 10-year government bond yield rose 5.6 basis points to 3.984% on October 7, as markets look ahead to the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision — until then, the loonie lacks a clear direction.
Third, a packed domestic calendar: Canada's August trade surplus widened to C$4.2 billion on October 6, far above the C$1.55 billion expected, as exporters rushed shipments to the U.S. ahead of new tariffs; Monday's Quebec election saw a separatist party win without a majority, adding short-term political uncertainty; and Friday's (October 9) September jobs report — expected to show a 9,200 job gain with unemployment edging up to 6.5% — is the real near-term driver for the loonie.
3. Data check: RMB up about 3.5% against CAD in a month
Putting the key numbers of the past month together, the RMB-to-CAD window is shifting. Key data: USD/CAD 1.427 (Oct 7; loonie down 0.5% on the day); CAD vs USD ~70.08 U.S. cents; weekly loonie low 1.4293 (Oct 5; 18-month low); Brent crude $102.28/bbl (Oct 8; +2.28%); WTI crude $89.94/bbl (Oct 8; +1.88%); USD/CNY ~6.70 (Oct 8); RMB/CAD (cross rate) ~4.70 (vs ~4.87 a month ago).
Over the past 30 days, USD/CAD rose from 1.3775 to around 1.43 — the loonie depreciating about 3.3% against the greenback — while USD/CNY held broadly steady near 6.70. The net effect: RMB/CAD strengthened from about 4.87 to about 4.70, a gain of roughly 3.5%. On that math, CNY 100,000 bought about CAD 20,540 a month ago versus about CAD 21,300 today. Note this is a reference calculation based on market mid-rates; actual exchange amounts follow the live rate board.
4. How the RMB/CAD cross rate works
Unlike major pairs such as USD or JPY, there is no deep direct market between the renminbi and the Canadian dollar — banks and FX dealers quote it as a cross rate "bridged" through the U.S. dollar. The formula is simple: RMB/CAD = USD/CNY ÷ USD/CAD. Plugging in today's numbers: 6.70 ÷ 1.427 ≈ 4.70. So the RMB-to-CAD rate moves with two inputs: USD/CNY (driven by the dollar index and the yuan fixing) and USD/CAD (driven by oil, Bank of Canada policy, and U.S.-Canada trade tensions). Watching only one side easily leads to the wrong conclusion.
Example: if oil keeps climbing and lifts the loonie (USD/CAD falling) while USD/CNY stays steady, each yuan buys more Canadian dollars — exactly the transmission chain FX users need to understand in an oil-driven market.
KAPU's Take
Three signals stand out right now: first, oil above $100 a barrel, with the geopolitical risk premium still elevated; second, the loonie struggling near an 18-month low, with Friday's September jobs report and the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision as key checkpoints; third, the renminbi up about 3.5% against the Canadian dollar over the past month — relatively favorable for anyone with near-term exchange needs.
Practical tips: watch the actual RMB/CAD quote (live rate board) rather than just USD/CAD headlines; plan ahead around payment dates — tuition, property closings, and family transfers all run on fixed schedules; consider splitting larger amounts into batches to smooth short-term swings; and for transactions above CAD 2,000, bring ID and allow time for identity verification and source-of-funds review.
Whether you need currency exchange in Vancouver, RMB-to-CAD conversion, or international money transfers from Canada, KAPU offers real-time, transparent rate boards. CNY funds can arrive quickly via Interac e-Transfer, and we have dedicated solutions for corporate cross-border payments. Check the live rates or visit us in store.
Some information in this column is republished from public financial media or official websites; copyright belongs to the original authors or source websites. Original source: [Reuters]. For copyright concerns, please email [email protected].
