On October 9, 2026, Statistics Canada released the September jobs report: employment fell by a net 68,300 — far below the 9,200 gain economists polled by Reuters expected — while the unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4% in August, in line with forecasts. It was the second straight monthly decline, following a 41,700-job loss in August. After the release, USD/CAD climbed to around 1.4276, its highest since April 2025 — one loonie worth about 70.1 U.S. cents. KAPU breaks down how the weak report feeds through to the loonie — and what it means for RMB-to-CAD exchange.
As of October 15, USD/CAD has eased back to around 1.42 but remains in a high range. The jobs shock is reshaping expectations for the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision — until then, the loonie lacks a clear direction. For FX users, the number that matters is still the cross rate: with USD/CNY around 6.69 and USD/CAD around 1.42, the implied RMB/CAD rate is about 4.71 — roughly 2.2% stronger than about 4.82 a month ago. In other words, CNY 100,000 bought about CAD 20,750 a month ago and buys about CAD 21,210 today — roughly CAD 460 more. Always check the live rate board before exchanging.
1. Why jobs missed: public-sector payrolls fell for a fourth month, youth hit hardest
Of the 68,300 jobs lost in September, full-time employment fell about 35,000 and part-time about 33,000 — split almost evenly. But the weakness was not broad-based: public-sector employment dropped by 70,000, its fourth consecutive monthly decline and 119,000 below a year ago. Education lost 35,000 positions and health care and social assistance 23,000 — Statistics Canada linked this to government cuts to international student permits. Manufacturing shed about 12,700 jobs, a sector partly exposed to the latest round of U.S. tariffs. Notably, September was the first full month after the new U.S. tariffs on Canada took effect, though analysts say the tariff impact on employment data may only show up in the coming months.
Young people took the biggest hit: employment among 15- to 24-year-olds fell by 48,000, with youth unemployment holding around 13%. Core-aged women (25 to 54) lost 28,000 jobs and their unemployment rate rose to 5.3%. The participation rate fell to 64.8% — the lowest since December 1997, excluding 2020 — and the employment rate slipped to 60.6%. The one warm signal was wages: average hourly earnings rose 2.3% year over year to C$37.64, up from 2.0% in August.
By province, Quebec lost 49,000 jobs, British Columbia 20,000, and Ontario about 20,000 (its unemployment rate holding at 7.0%), while Alberta added 23,000.
2. From jobs data to the loonie: cooling rate expectations are the key link
The jobs numbers hit market bets on the Bank of Canada's rate path directly. After the release, money markets stopped pricing in an October hike — the consensus now expects the Bank to hold at its October 28 meeting, while a 25-basis-point hike in December remains on the table. Desjardins' head of macro strategy noted that, given the recent deterioration in the labour market, Canadian central bankers will likely keep rates unchanged later this month; still, higher energy prices could begin feeding other inflation categories this fall and force officials to tighten soon.
The logic is straightforward: cooling hike expectations → less appeal for the loonie → USD/CAD higher. On October 9, the pair climbed to around 1.4276, its highest since April 2025. A month earlier, on September 15, USD/CAD was near 1.39 — the loonie has depreciated about 2% against the greenback in a month.
3. Data check: key numbers after the jobs miss
| Indicator | Data |
| Canada September employment change | -68,300 (vs +9,200 expected) |
| Unemployment rate | 6.5% (from 6.4% in August, in line with forecast) |
| Participation rate | 64.8% (lowest since Dec 1997) |
| Average hourly wage | C$37.64 (+2.3% YoY) |
| USD/CAD | ~1.4276 (Oct 9, highest since Apr 2025); ~1.42 on Oct 15 |
| Loonie vs USD | ~70.1 U.S. cents (Oct 9) |
| USD/CNY | ~6.69 (Oct 15) |
| RMB/CAD (cross rate) | ~4.71 (vs ~4.82 a month ago) |
| Next BoC decision | Oct 28 (markets expect a hold) |
Over the past month, USD/CAD rose from 1.39 to around 1.42 — the loonie depreciating about 2% — while USD/CNY held broadly steady near 6.69. The net effect: RMB/CAD strengthened from about 4.82 to about 4.71, a gain of roughly 2.2%. On that math, CNY 100,000 bought about CAD 20,750 a month ago versus about CAD 21,210 today. Note this is a reference calculation based on market mid-rates; actual exchange amounts follow the live rate board.
4. Cross-rate primer: why "a weaker loonie" doesn't always mean a better deal
Unlike major pairs, there is no deep direct market between the renminbi and the Canadian dollar — banks and FX dealers quote it as a cross rate "bridged" through the U.S. dollar:
RMB/CAD = USD/CNY ÷ USD/CAD
Plugging in today's numbers: 6.69 ÷ 1.42 ≈ 4.71. The formula shows the RMB-to-CAD rate is pulled by two inputs at once: USD/CNY (the dollar index and the yuan fixing) and USD/CAD (oil, Bank of Canada policy, U.S.-Canada trade tensions). Judging timing from a "weaker loonie" headline alone easily misleads — if USD/CNY softens at the same time, RMB-to-CAD can actually improve.
This episode is a textbook case: the loonie fell about 2% against the dollar, but the yuan barely moved against the dollar, so RMB/CAD strengthened instead — the same yuan now buys more Canadian dollars. The variable to watch next is the Bank of Canada's October 28 decision: the rate call will re-price USD/CAD, and the cross rate will carry that through to RMB-to-CAD quotes.
KAPU's Take
Three signals stand out: first, Canada's September jobs report missed badly, with two straight monthly declines erasing all the employment gains recorded earlier this year; second, market expectations of an October Bank of Canada hike have cooled, making the October 28 meeting the key near-term checkpoint for the loonie; third, the renminbi is up about 2.2% against the Canadian dollar over the past month — relatively favorable for anyone with near-term exchange needs.
Practical tips: watch the actual RMB/CAD quote (live rate board) rather than just USD/CAD headlines; plan ahead around payment dates — tuition, property closings, and family transfers all run on fixed schedules; consider splitting larger amounts into batches to smooth short-term swings; and for transactions above CAD 2,000, bring ID and allow time for identity verification and source-of-funds review.
Whether you need currency exchange in Vancouver, RMB-to-CAD conversion, or international money transfers from Canada, KAPU offers real-time, transparent rate boards. CNY funds can arrive quickly via Interac e-Transfer, and we have dedicated solutions for corporate cross-border payments. Check the live rates or visit us in store.
